Nathan Sunday
Welcome to my homepage!
I am a PhD candidate in the Department of Economics at the University of Michigan and am on the 2026–2027 economics job market.
My research focuses on public finance with applications in developing countries. I examine how taxes, transfers, and institutional reforms shape firms, labor markets, and broader economic development. My current work uses administrative firm-level tax data from Uganda to study how property taxation and decentralization affect firm activity and the fiscal capacity of the central government, as well as their broader welfare implications.
I previously worked as a Research Analyst at the Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC), a policy research think tank in Uganda. I have also gained exposure to national development planning processes through my role as a PhD Fellow at the National Planning Authority (Uganda) in the summer of 2024. I hold a Master of Arts in Economics and a Bachelor of Science in Education (Economics and Mathematics) from Makerere University.
You can view my CV here.
You can view my Research Statement here.
Contact: nsunday@umich.edu
Job Market Paper
Beyond Local Revenue: Commercial Property Taxes, Firm Behavior, and Fiscal Externalities, [PDF], October 2026
Conferences: The 8th World Bank/ODI Global/IFS Public Finance Conference, 2026, Washington DC; 119th National Tax Association Annual Conference (Scheduled), 2026, Pittsburgh, PA
Abstract (click to expand)
Property taxation is widely viewed as a promising source of revenue for developing countries, yet evidence on its economic effects remains limited. Using administrative data from corporate and employee tax returns in a staggered difference-in-differences design, this paper shows that a property tax increase in Kampala, Uganda significantly reduced rates of firm survival. Business rental expenses increased by 6.3 percent, and firms responded by reducing formal employment and wages, with wage informalization accounting for most of the decline in the formal wage bill. Higher-earning employees of ongoing firms bore disproportionate shares of the wage declines. Within government, there were vertical fiscal externalities: the tax increase reduced central government income tax revenues by 30 percent of the amount it contributed to local property tax collections. The estimates imply that property taxes have 53 percent marginal deadweight losses.Working Papers
The Economic Effects of Decentralization: Firm Performance and Fiscal Capacity, (with Laston Manja and Jovitah Namutebi), September 2026
Abstract (click to expand)
Decentralization is widely argued to improve public service delivery, yet its effects on private-sector activity and fiscal capacity remain poorly understood. We study Uganda’s 2015/16 creation of 23 new districts using administrative tax records in a staggered difference-in-differences design. District creation increased firm revenues by an average of 13 percent over the study period, with effects emerging two years after the reform and growing thereafter. Firms increased expenditures on intermediate inputs and labor, while profits did not significantly change. Stronger local demand and improved infrastructure, including more reliable electricity, help explain these gains. Effects are concentrated in relatively symmetric district splits, with no detectable gains in highly asymmetric splits. Decentralization also strengthened central fiscal capacity by increasing effective corporate income taxation and labor income tax remittance. Overall, decentralization can stimulate private-sector activity and strengthen central revenue mobilization, but institutional design matters.Beyond the Beneficiary: Old-Age Pensions and the Labor Market Outcomes of Ineligible Adults, April 2026
Presented at the 6th World Bank/IFS/ODI Public Finance Conference, 2024, Washington DC
Abstract (click to expand)
In many low-income countries, younger adults provide substantial financial support and caregiving to elderly household members, yet little is known about how these responsibilities shape their economic behavior. This paper asks whether programs that alleviate these responsibilities affect the labor supply and earnings of working-age adults. Studying Uganda’s old-age pension program, I find that an additional year of pension exposure increases monthly sales and profits among ineligible self-employed adults by 10.2 percent and 9.5 percent, respectively, with no significant effect on wage employees’ earnings. Weekly hours worked increased by 1.3 percent, with effects concentrated among the self-employed. Gains are also concentrated among women and are largely explained by increased working capital. The effects are driven by pensions received by men rather than women. Overall, old-age pensions relax resource constraints among younger household members, generating meaningful spillovers beyond direct beneficiaries.Work in Progress
Using Digital Connectivity to Expand Global Job Opportunities for African Workers, (with Dean Yang, David Mckenzie, Heesung Kim, Robertson Khataza, and Ted Lui). AEA RCT Registry. July 08, 2026. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.16818-2.0
Presented at the 2026 Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics (ABCDE), Washington DC
Abstract (click to expand)
Sub-Saharan Africa faces high youth unemployment as the number of young people entering the labor market outpaces the creation of local jobs. At the same time, global freelancing platforms offer skilled workers access to employment opportunities beyond local labor markets, often at substantially higher wages. Yet informational and reputational frictions—including limited knowledge of effective bidding strategies, weak initial profiles, and insufficient job-search persistence—as well as liquidity constraints may prevent many skilled workers from successfully entering these markets. This study evaluates whether reducing these barriers improves remote-work outcomes for young African professionals. We conduct a randomized controlled trial (RCT) among workers who meet baseline screening criteria, assigning participants to treatment arms that vary exposure to two interventions: individualized mentoring from experienced African freelancers and liquidity support. We measure outcomes using platform administrative data and surveys, focusing on job-search intensity, contract acquisition, and earnings. The study also examines heterogeneity by gender, contributing to our understanding of frictions in digital labor markets and informing the design of scalable interventions to expand access to global employment opportunities.Selected Publications
Papers
“Does Corruption Explain the Decision to Invest and the Value of Investment? Revisiting Evidence from Sub-Saharan African Firms” (with Ibrahim Mike Okumu and Edward Bbaale). Journal of International Development, 2025. Vol. 37: 1622–1639.
“Gender of a Manager and Firm Performance in Africa: Does the Business Environment Play a Moderating Role?” (with Ibrahim Mike Okumu and Edward Bbaale). Journal of International Development, 2024. Vol. 36: 3082–3124.
“How Specific Resilience Pillars Mitigate the Impact of Drought on Food Security: Evidence from Uganda” (with Rehema Kahunde, Blessing Atwine, Adesoji Adelaja, and Justin George). Food Security, 2023. Vol. 15: 111–131.
Book Chapters
“Employment and Productivity of Uganda’s SMEs in the Face of COVID-19: A Gender Perspective” (with Brian Sserunjogi, Paul Lakuma, and Rehema Kahunde). In Socioeconomic Shocks and Africa’s Development Agenda, Evans Osabuohien, Gbadebo Odularu, Daniel Ufua, and Romanus Osabohien (eds). Routledge, 2023.